CRDO CSP 1/23/26
Sold the CRDO Jan 23 2026 $165 put at $16.24 with ~0.34 delta. DTE = 45 Days (CRDO: $169.78 - 12/9/25)
Key Metrics (as of entry)
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Strike | $165.00 | |
| Premium collected | $16.24 | $1,624 per contract |
| Max yield if expires OTM | 9.84% | $16.24 / $165.00 = 9.84% in 45 days → 80% annualized |
| Breakeven price | $148.76 | $165.00 – $16.24 |
| Effective cost basis if assigned | $148.76 | Net cost $148.76/share (17% below today’s ~$179) |
| Distance to strike | –7.8% | Current ~$179 → $165 is ~7.8% below spot |
| Initial delta | ~0.34 | Solid probability of profit (~66% POP) |
Getting paid 9.8% to own CRDO at $148.76 if it dips there—a solid discount in this volatile sector. Excellent fill at $16.24.
Profit-Taking Plan (Rules for This Trade)
IV is still ~78-80% here, so theta should accelerate nicely. Lock in gains aggressively—don’t chase the last dollar.
| % Max Profit | Action | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Close 30–50% of the position (e.g., buy back 3–5 of 10 contracts) | Locks in early gains; reduces risk dramatically |
| 60–65% | Close another 30–40% (down to 2–3 contracts) | Most profit banked; still some upside exposure |
| 70% | Close remaining contracts unless <10 DTE and still deep OTM | 70% in <40 days is a win; avoid greed |
| 80%+ | Close 100% immediately | 80%+ in weeks = take the gift and give thanks! |
Concrete $ Targets (based on $16.24 credit)
| Days Held | % Max Profit | Buy-Back Target | Profit/Contract | Typical Trigger |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7–10 | 50% | ~$8.12 | +$812 | Rapid upside move + IV crush |
| 14–21 | 60–65% | ~$5.68 – $6.50 | +$974 – +$1,056 | Consistent theta decay |
| 21–35 | 70% | ~$4.87 | +$1,137 | Standard close point |
| 35–45 | 80%+ | ≤ $3.25 | +$1,299+ | Instant close — home run |
Realistic scenario: If CRDO stays ≥$180 and IV drops, you could hit 70% profit (~$4.87 buy-back) by early-to-mid January.
My Default Management Plan for This Trade
- At 50% profit → reduce to 50–60% of original size
- At 65–70% profit → close all but 1–2 runners (runners only if <14 DTE and stock ripping)
- Hard rule: If offered 80%+ → close 100% instantly, give thanks.
- Exception: Inside 7 DTE, put ≤ $0.50, stock >$180 → let expire for scraps.