Sold the Jan 16 2026 $80 put at $10.60 with ~0.35 delta.

Key Metrics (as of entry)

Metric	Value	Notes
Strike	$80.00
Premium collected	$10.60	$1,060 per contract
Max yield if expires OTM	13.25%	$10.60 / $80.00 = 13.25% in 58 days → 243% annualized
Breakeven price	$69.40	$80.00 – $10.60
Effective cost basis if assigned	$69.40	Net cost $69.40/share (20% below today’s ~$87)
Distance to strike	–8.3%	Current ~$87 → $80 is ~8.3% below spot
Initial delta	~0.35	Very comfortable probability of profit (~65–68% POP)

My bear case is $107. Getting paid 13.25% to own NBIS at $69.40.

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Profit-Taking Plan (Rules for This Trade)

We’re in a high-IV environment (still ~85–90%), so theta decay is juicy.
The goal: lock in winners fast. Never give back big gains chasing the last $0.50–$1.00.

% Max Profit	Action	Rationale
50%	Close 30–50% of the position (e.g., buy back 3–5 of 10 contracts)	Locks in early gains; reduces risk dramatically
60–65%	Close another 30–40% (down to 2–3 contracts)	Most money is now secured
70%	Close remaining contracts unless <10 DTE and still deep OTM	70% in <50 days is exceptional
80%+	Close 100% immediately	80%+ in weeks = take the gift and give thanks!

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Concrete $ Targets (based on $10.60 credit)

Days Held	% Max Profit	Buy-Back Target	Profit/Contract	Typical Trigger
7–10	50%	~$5.30	+$530	Fast move + IV crush
14–21	60–65%	~$3.70 – $4.25	+$635 – +$690	Normal theta decay
21–35	70%	~$3.18	+$742	Close it here almost always
35–45	80%+	≤ $2.12	+$848+	Instant close — home run

Realistic scenario:
If NBIS stays ≥ $90 and IV continues falling, I’ll likely hit 70% profit ($3.18 buy-back) in 21–35 days.

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My Default Management Plan for This Trade

1. At 50% profit → reduce to 50–60% of original size
2. At 65–70% profit → close all but 1–2 runners
3. Hard rule: If offered 80%+ → close 100% instantly
4. Exception: If <7 DTE and put is ≤ $0.50 with stock >$95 → allow it to expire worthless

This trade currently carries 65–68% probability of profit, and collecting theta aggressively.